Two and Twenty

Moving

2009-01-06T19:07:00.007-05:00

Please visit my new site at : 2andtwenty.wordpress.com

Nothing Day

2009-01-05T16:26:00.004-05:00

Another day I did absolutely nothing. Finished positive thanks to my inverse ETF's. Really starting to think about shedding my longs but I know that is the wrong thing to do. We can still rally here for a few days/weeks. Have to love it when auto sales come in -30% across the board and people cheer the fact that it could have been worse. Construction spending a little better than expected and we cut our early losses. But at the end of the day we still finish lower. Sooner or later people are going to realize that St. Obama can't save us all. Economic news will take us lower over the next 6 months or so.

The Upcoming Week

2009-01-04T20:37:00.003-05:00

What can we expect next week? After a 500 point Dow rally over 3 days we are starting to get oversold a bit. Keep that in mind we could see some sort of pull back. The institutional guys are back to work this week so hopefully we get some clarity in the way the market wants to go. I'm still long term bearish but can't rule out a rally until Obama takes office. Never underestimate the power of stupid people. Friday on a +250 day my SRS position was positive. A good sign for SRS but a lousy sign for the state of the CRE market. Barron's this weekend basically pumped TBT by announcing the bubble in treasuries, I'm not sure we are to the bubble burst yet the story may be good for a short term pop.

There are numerous economic reports coming out this week - Construction Spending, Auto Sales, ISM, Crude Inv, Payroll and Unemployment data. We'll see how the market reacts and just how bad(or good) the numbers continue to be.

I am still positioned to the short side but have some FAS and UYM to hedge. I will use some of my cash position to scalp some long side trades if thats where they push the market.

Bottom Line- The worst "Recession" since the Depression and people are shouting we are through it in a few short months(ok 12 but still short in the scheme of things) and telling everyone that basically we are V bottoming. Can not see that happening. At S&P earnings of 60 we are trading at a 15.5 P/E right now far from even typical bear market ranges. Unemployment is rising, commercial real estate is collapsing, worldwide demand is crumbling and banks are insolvent. But yeah we are through it all.....

2009 Predictions

2009-01-02T15:07:00.003-05:00

The Economy will not recover in 2009, maybe early 2010.

Markets will end the year lower. 15-25% lower

First half markets will break the old lows. S&P 600 not out of the question.

Commercial Real Estate will collapse. Many Reits going to 0.

The dollar will remain strong even though dollar bears will scream otherwise.

The euro and pound will weaken significantly.

Gold will not soar, most likely will fall.

Commodities will remain weak.

Housing prices will decline another 10-15%.

Unemployment will hit at least 10%.

The savings rate will start to increase.

GDP will continue to be negative.

At least 1 state will default.

The new Obama stimulus plan will be a disappointment.

The Fed's grand experiment will fail.

GM or Chrysler will declare bankruptcy as neither meet their targets. - Thank the UAW when it happens.

F makes it.

Russia will default. - Oil needs to at least double for them to remain.

Asian economies will cliff dive.

Treasury yields will stay incredibly low as the Treasury bubble continues until late 2009.

As the treasury bubble bursts TBT will soar.

Assholes

2009-01-02T13:42:00.002-05:00

Assholes that is what everyone buying is... Or maybe I am. maybe we are not in the worst recession since the 30's. Maybe Circuit City will reopen and hire 1,000,000 people. People are just fucking stupid but thank God I knew that going in and hedged my shorts.

Rallying off of backdoor government bailouts and Citi executives not taking a bonus(shocker!) that itself should say that they are all assholes. And as you celebrate this new found optimism just remember that the democratic process is dead. Congress refuses to give the automakers money yet they still get north of $20 billion through the back doors. That's a big Fuck You America - You're Dead.

Into the rally it would be prudent to put on some longs. Look at some commodity names like RIG, XOM, some of the financials like C. Remember I hate these names but when in Rome.....

I've been a little behind lately but later today I would like to put up some 2009 predictions.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

2008-12-25T00:19:00.004-05:00

Assholes

2008-12-22T18:39:00.002-05:00

Can someone explain to me why at 3:30 today assholes stepped into this market and started buying? Slow grind all day and then wham off to the races for 30 minutes.

Welcome to Amateur Hour. The system is fucked...

And We Grind Away

2008-12-22T13:41:00.003-05:00

Been out most of the day and will be leaving again as soon as I finish this post. Slow boring grind - probably what we'll see for the rest of the week. My shorts SRS, FAZ and BGZ are working my longs FAS, UYM and C are lower. Not concerned about my longs, been in C since 4 and FAS, UYM are just hedges as my bias is to the downside.

Crossroads

2008-12-21T21:32:00.003-05:00

It feels like we are getting closer to the crossroads, sooner or later this market is going to have to pick a direction. Some are saying this week we will know which way we are heading. Could be but i'm not so sure. We very well could get some big moves this week but remember its Christmas and volume should be pretty light. Personally absent a move that can't be ignored i'll be waiting for early next year for my confirmation of which way we are headed.

Some Sunday night fun:

Weekend Reading

2008-12-20T02:12:00.003-05:00

Some light weekend reading. Mostly events of the past week. Enjoy.

Detroit Handout Approved

Those bastards at Goldman strike again

Conditionson the next part of TARP - Who gives a shit, such a waste in these people's hands.

Madoff - Ripping people off Since 1970 - Kinda catchy, should have used it as his corporate motto.

Bush on Bush

Blagojevich - I'm not guilty - Can't they come up with something more colorful these days? Or for once just say yeah you caught me.

Divorce Billionaire style

More late downgrades

For Sale: 2 Cars and your own shop

Busted

2008-12-19T18:25:00.002-05:00

Hat Tip: UpsideTrader

I Fear the Future

2008-12-19T13:25:00.003-05:00

The United States has a national debt of 11 billion give or take, 41 states are currently running on budget deficits(illegal for most of them mind you). The Federal Reserve has rates at 0 and has pumped trillions into the economy. Hank Paulson and company has raped and pillaged the taxpayer and is going back for seconds. Obama is planning at least a trillion dollars in new spending just for "stimulus" that doesn't include any of his main "socialist" programs. I have to think Pelosi and company wont be happy sitting on the sidelines and will be lining up to pass out some more money.

If, and it is still an if but if this works to stimulate and reflate the economy what are the costs to ourselves or our children in the future? Do today's results justify tomorrows bill?

Oh and back to pillaging Paulson the TARP money seems to just be doing absolutely nothing for lending. Why? GS is paying bonus' with it, PNC buys NCC with their share. Others are doing similiar things or just hoarding it.

Will we ever be able to scrape our way out of this massive hole? Not without raising interest rates to attract investment.

Pick off of this idea. Somewhere TBT is going to make a shit load of money for people. I don't think we are there yet but keep it on your radar.

Madoff Madness

2008-12-18T21:02:00.004-05:00

We're a few days into this shit storm and we still have only Bernie as the bad guy? I know there is no possible way that he pulled this off alone. No one could. They say he was running at least 3 or 4 sets of books. Plus out on the town raising new capital. Sorry absolutely unbelievable. Did the sons know? Was it preplanned to let them turn on him so they walk away? Why hasn't he ran yet?

And who in their right mind gave this guy money? Where were they on the DD. They say they are going to go after teh money already returned to investors.... Fuck you is what I would say to them. You weren't involved in the scheme why should you be penalized for having enough sense to get out, for whatever reason.

I was going to post some madoff links but there is just too damn many of them and your probably sick of reading it all anyway. So I will just leave you with this:

Update: The AP seems to be asking the same questions now.

Commercial Real Estate

2008-12-18T19:38:00.002-05:00

I have a minute so I thought I would put up a quick post. I can't believe that there are people still out there who believe commercial real estate is not going to be hit let alone hit as hard as I think it will be. We have Circuit City, Linens N things, KB Toys and I am sure many others going out of business. How will these mall operators continue to operate? Most have taken on a heavy debt load to finance expansion and other activities through the boom years. Soon the piper will need paid and its looking like payment will be do at the absolute worst time. The play I see setting up here is definately SRS, if you don't like the leveraged ETF's(They are satan spawns) then shorting the IYR seems to be the way to go. 2 or 3 months from now those plays should really play out.

Word of caution SRS was 300 not too long ago and is now trading in the 60's up from the 50's. i told you the leveraged ETF's were evil.

Test

2008-12-18T19:18:00.000-05:00

I will begin posting shortly. Maybe even later tonight. I just need to get the hang of things first. I hope to include some investment ideas, useful/interesting links and a breakdown of some of my trades.