Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Monday, January 5, 2009
Nothing Day
Another day I did absolutely nothing. Finished positive thanks to my inverse ETF's. Really starting to think about shedding my longs but I know that is the wrong thing to do. We can still rally here for a few days/weeks. Have to love it when auto sales come in -30% across the board and people cheer the fact that it could have been worse. Construction spending a little better than expected and we cut our early losses. But at the end of the day we still finish lower. Sooner or later people are going to realize that St. Obama can't save us all. Economic news will take us lower over the next 6 months or so.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
The Upcoming Week
What can we expect next week? After a 500 point Dow rally over 3 days we are starting to get oversold a bit. Keep that in mind we could see some sort of pull back. The institutional guys are back to work this week so hopefully we get some clarity in the way the market wants to go. I'm still long term bearish but can't rule out a rally until Obama takes office. Never underestimate the power of stupid people. Friday on a +250 day my SRS position was positive. A good sign for SRS but a lousy sign for the state of the CRE market. Barron's this weekend basically pumped TBT by announcing the bubble in treasuries, I'm not sure we are to the bubble burst yet the story may be good for a short term pop.
There are numerous economic reports coming out this week - Construction Spending, Auto Sales, ISM, Crude Inv, Payroll and Unemployment data. We'll see how the market reacts and just how bad(or good) the numbers continue to be.
I am still positioned to the short side but have some FAS and UYM to hedge. I will use some of my cash position to scalp some long side trades if thats where they push the market.
Bottom Line- The worst "Recession" since the Depression and people are shouting we are through it in a few short months(ok 12 but still short in the scheme of things) and telling everyone that basically we are V bottoming. Can not see that happening. At S&P earnings of 60 we are trading at a 15.5 P/E right now far from even typical bear market ranges. Unemployment is rising, commercial real estate is collapsing, worldwide demand is crumbling and banks are insolvent. But yeah we are through it all.....
There are numerous economic reports coming out this week - Construction Spending, Auto Sales, ISM, Crude Inv, Payroll and Unemployment data. We'll see how the market reacts and just how bad(or good) the numbers continue to be.
I am still positioned to the short side but have some FAS and UYM to hedge. I will use some of my cash position to scalp some long side trades if thats where they push the market.
Bottom Line- The worst "Recession" since the Depression and people are shouting we are through it in a few short months(ok 12 but still short in the scheme of things) and telling everyone that basically we are V bottoming. Can not see that happening. At S&P earnings of 60 we are trading at a 15.5 P/E right now far from even typical bear market ranges. Unemployment is rising, commercial real estate is collapsing, worldwide demand is crumbling and banks are insolvent. But yeah we are through it all.....
Friday, January 2, 2009
2009 Predictions
The Economy will not recover in 2009, maybe early 2010.
Markets will end the year lower. 15-25% lower
First half markets will break the old lows. S&P 600 not out of the question.
Commercial Real Estate will collapse. Many Reits going to 0.
The dollar will remain strong even though dollar bears will scream otherwise.
The euro and pound will weaken significantly.
Gold will not soar, most likely will fall.
Commodities will remain weak.
Housing prices will decline another 10-15%.
Unemployment will hit at least 10%.
The savings rate will start to increase.
GDP will continue to be negative.
At least 1 state will default.
The new Obama stimulus plan will be a disappointment.
The Fed's grand experiment will fail.
GM or Chrysler will declare bankruptcy as neither meet their targets. - Thank the UAW when it happens.
F makes it.
Russia will default. - Oil needs to at least double for them to remain.
Asian economies will cliff dive.
Treasury yields will stay incredibly low as the Treasury bubble continues until late 2009.
As the treasury bubble bursts TBT will soar.
Markets will end the year lower. 15-25% lower
First half markets will break the old lows. S&P 600 not out of the question.
Commercial Real Estate will collapse. Many Reits going to 0.
The dollar will remain strong even though dollar bears will scream otherwise.
The euro and pound will weaken significantly.
Gold will not soar, most likely will fall.
Commodities will remain weak.
Housing prices will decline another 10-15%.
Unemployment will hit at least 10%.
The savings rate will start to increase.
GDP will continue to be negative.
At least 1 state will default.
The new Obama stimulus plan will be a disappointment.
The Fed's grand experiment will fail.
GM or Chrysler will declare bankruptcy as neither meet their targets. - Thank the UAW when it happens.
F makes it.
Russia will default. - Oil needs to at least double for them to remain.
Asian economies will cliff dive.
Treasury yields will stay incredibly low as the Treasury bubble continues until late 2009.
As the treasury bubble bursts TBT will soar.
Assholes
Assholes that is what everyone buying is... Or maybe I am. maybe we are not in the worst recession since the 30's. Maybe Circuit City will reopen and hire 1,000,000 people. People are just fucking stupid but thank God I knew that going in and hedged my shorts.
Rallying off of backdoor government bailouts and Citi executives not taking a bonus(shocker!) that itself should say that they are all assholes. And as you celebrate this new found optimism just remember that the democratic process is dead. Congress refuses to give the automakers money yet they still get north of $20 billion through the back doors. That's a big Fuck You America - You're Dead.
Into the rally it would be prudent to put on some longs. Look at some commodity names like RIG, XOM, some of the financials like C. Remember I hate these names but when in Rome.....
I've been a little behind lately but later today I would like to put up some 2009 predictions.
Rallying off of backdoor government bailouts and Citi executives not taking a bonus(shocker!) that itself should say that they are all assholes. And as you celebrate this new found optimism just remember that the democratic process is dead. Congress refuses to give the automakers money yet they still get north of $20 billion through the back doors. That's a big Fuck You America - You're Dead.
Into the rally it would be prudent to put on some longs. Look at some commodity names like RIG, XOM, some of the financials like C. Remember I hate these names but when in Rome.....
I've been a little behind lately but later today I would like to put up some 2009 predictions.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
Assholes
Can someone explain to me why at 3:30 today assholes stepped into this market and started buying? Slow grind all day and then wham off to the races for 30 minutes.
Welcome to Amateur Hour. The system is fucked...
Welcome to Amateur Hour. The system is fucked...
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